The calculation
For each source → receiver pair: 2020 source tonnes of CO₂ × the receiver’s modeled damage per tonne from a 2020 pulse. The amount is a discounted value of future mortality, energy and coastal effects, expressed in 2020 US dollars.
Exploratory research tool / 2020 CO₂
A country in two directions.
See where one country’s CO₂ is modeled to have effects, and how that country is modeled to be affected by emissions from the 15 PECA case countries.
These are illustrative climate model outputs, not observed harm or a complete country balance.
01 / Explore
Change the inputs
Choose a case country and one CO₂ accounting view. The same country anchors both charts.
Loading data…184 modeled receiving countries · 15 PECA case sources
OUTWARD →
Where this country’s emissions have effects
← INWARD
How this country is affected
Bar length shows modeled mean discounted damage in 2020 USDChoose any bar for the pair estimate and model-draw range.
02 / Country pair
Select a bar to inspect a country pair
The two charts use the same receiving-country climate coefficient per tonne of CO₂.
Modeled mean—
5th–95th percentile of saved model draws—
03 / Read before interpreting
What the graph means
The two directions
The outward chart covers 184 modeled receivers. The inward chart compares the 15 PECA case sources only, so it is not the receiving country’s total exposure to global emissions. Custom tonnes change the outward chart only; inbound bars retain other countries’ recorded 2020 totals.
The boundaries
Territorial and consumption-based emissions are alternative accounting views and must not be added. This linear illustration is not an exact estimate of removing a country’s emissions. The original strict geographic sum test failed, and other PECA pathways, including air pollution, are outside these charts.
Research status. The receiver estimates use 10,000 saved MimiGIVE model draws. The displayed 5th–95th percentiles describe variation in those draws, not full scientific uncertainty. This site is a focused view of an exploratory PECA prototype, not a finished PECA result or a 2026 emissions estimate.
Data and provenance
Source emissions: Global Carbon Budget 2025 (Friedlingstein et al., 2025). We acknowledge the Global Carbon Project and the contributing modelling groups. Population: World Bank, 2020. Receiving-country modeled coefficients: PECA’s pinned 2020 MimiGIVE saved draws. The source data and limitations are recorded in the MimiGIVE model repository and the local PECA research prototype.